Tin market maintained a fluctuating rangebound trend during the night session, while downstream and end-user enterprises remained cautious and adopted a wait-and-see attitude. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Update on November 18, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) fluctuated rangebound during the night session, trading around the 290,000 yuan mark, and closed at 290,480 yuan/mt, up 0.19% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Association on major truck crane manufacturers, sales of various truck cranes in October 2025 totaled 1,907 units, up 10.2% YoY, including domestic sales of 1,528 units (up 2.41% YoY) and exports of 379 units (up 59.2% YoY). From January to October 2025, cumulative sales reached 20,909 units (up 5.87% YoY), with domestic sales at 16,271 units (up 3.01% YoY) and exports at 4,638 units (up 17.3% YoY). (2) Supported by fading expectations for a US Fed rate cut next month, gold prices extended their decline for the third consecutive day. Spot gold traded around $4,040/oz early Tuesday. Following the longest government shutdown in US history, traders and policymakers are awaiting a slew of data releases. Meanwhile, several Fed officials warned against lowering borrowing costs again. Interest rate swaps currently indicate less than a 40% probability of a Fed rate cut in December. (3) US Fed—① Jefferson: Downside risks to employment have increased, but reiterated the need for more cautious policy adjustments. ② Cook denied fraud allegations. ③ Fed Chairman candidate Hassett: Mixed signals from the labor market, AI may suppress hiring demand. ④ Waller: Supports a 25 bp rate cut in December, which would provide additional insurance for the labor market. This view is unlikely to change after the upcoming employment data release.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major producing areas like Yunnan. Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sectors.

Spot market: Overall spot transaction activity was weak. Traders showed high quoting sentiment, but downstream and end-user enterprises maintained a wait-and-see attitude toward current prices, with only minimal just-in-time procurement occurring.

[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use it to replace their independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.